News Release

16 December 2005

Dementia "set to quadruple" says Lancet report

Developing countries hardest hit

A new case of dementia arises every seven seconds with the number of people with dementia set to double every 20 years, says a report in The Lancet today (366:2112-2117). The report, produced for Alzheimer's Disease International (ADI), comes 100 years after the first description of Alzheimer's disease and estimates that 24.3 million people currently have dementia, with 4.6 million new cases annually. By 2040 the number will have risen to 81.1 million.

The study highlights that most people with dementia live in developing countries: 60% in 2001 rising to 71% by 2040. The rate of increase is predicted to be three to four times higher in developing regions than in developed areas. Already, many more people with dementia live in China and its neighbours (6 million) than in either Western Europe (4.8 million) or North America (3.4 million). By 2040 there will be as many people with dementia in China alone as in the whole of the developed world put together.

These alarming new figures are a call to action for governments worldwide. "We are faced with a ticking time bomb," explained ADI's chairman Orien Reid. "Governments must start to plan policy, and allocate health and welfare resources for the future."

"There is already a great need for community based services, welfare and support and these new figures show that pressure on governments for dementia services will increase dramatically in the next few years. This need has to be addressed now," said Professor Martin Prince, who co-ordinated the study with Dr Cleusa Ferri.

The report concluded that there needs to be a climate for change, but this must start by correcting a fundamental lack of awareness among policymakers, clinicians and the public. ADI works to raise international awareness of the disease and in 2006 will be marking the centenary of when Alzheimer's was first described with a series of events culminating in a climb of Mount Kilimanjaro for World Alzheimer's Day on 21st September 2006.

"The Centenary year is an opportunity to bring attention to the worldwide implications of these new figures," said Michael Lefevre, Executive Director of ADI. " We have come a long way in the last 100 years but if things remain as they are, with limited recognition of this devastating disease, the next 100 years looks bleak."

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